The butterfly effect and the Niger coup
It is said in philosophical and physical theories that a butterfly flapping its wings on the banks of the Amazon, for example; it may cause an air movement that eventually leads to a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.in fact, this speech is only a figurative expression and a verbal metaphor and is not meant for the truth, but it is used to express the concept of the impact of the event on the surrounding conditions, and this term basically indicates that small differences in the first case of a dynamic moving system may result in large differences in the actions and behaviors of this system in the long run.
The applications of this theory are not limited to small events that cause big events that may reach the point of disaster, but go beyond them to the simplest and largest details of life, a small event in the House of one of your neighbors may change your life forever, let alone a big event on the southern border of your country.
What prompted the writing of this article is the coup that the neighboring country of Niger witnessed recently, and what makes this coup more important than others on the continent of Africa, which is full of coups, is that it happened on a democratically elected regime, not on a coup or hereditary regime, and Niger's coup could trigger a series of destabilizing effects that extend beyond Niger to neighboring countries in the coast region.
In Libya, which is witnessing a state of geopolitical instability, it seems impossible to contain the possible effects and complications of the Niger coup, especially as it is witnessing endless struggles to contain its internal complexities.
The complications of the Niger coup and its effects on Libya begin with the already burning immigration file. Given Libya's geographical location, the activity of smuggling gangs in it, and the recent crackdown by the Tunisian authorities on migrants, expelling them to remote border and desert areas and leaving them there to meet an inevitable fate, Libya is an ideal candidate to be a major transit point for the expected flow of migrants fleeing the chaos caused by the coup.
The deteriorating situation of migrants in neighboring Tunisia and the security situation in Libya as the authorities try to clamp down on people smugglers, with possible flows of migrants to Libyan shores may lead to a humanitarian crisis similar to the one still suffered by thousands of Syrians on their country's borders with neighboring countries, the crisis is still unresolved despite the passage of more than a decade.
The security repercussions of the Niger coup and the inability of the coup plotters to take absolute control of things may exacerbate the existing security challenges in Libya and the region, as unstable Niger could become a breeding ground for extremist groups seeking to exploit the power vacuum, especially with the presence of remnants of the Islamic State in southern Libya, Boko Haram in West Africa and the Azawad Liberation Front allied with Al –Qaeda in the sub - Saharan region, especially in southern Algeria and northern Mali.the power vacuum in Niger may represent a kiss of life for these groups, which-from painful experiences with them-thrive in periods of power vacuum.
Political and security instability in Niger may also lead to strained trade relations and disrupt economic activities in the region, which may negatively affect the Libyan economy, which has recently begun to witness a noticeable activity of truck convoys crossing to sub-Saharan countries, and may represent a strong blow to Libya's plans to be the Gateway of sub-Saharan countries to the northern countries, and may threaten the investment plans of foreign companies wishing to return to Libya after years of absence, especially in the fields of oil, gas and infrastructure.
The coup in Niger could also change regional power dynamics and have repercussions on domestic politics in Libya, where the results of the coup, if successful, could encourage some groups wishing to seize power by force of arms, which will inevitably lead to increased political polarization.
The coup in Niger may increase the power of Wagner groups in the region, as despite the apparent divorce between the Wagner and the Russian state, the former is undoubtedly the upper hand of Russia in areas that are not historically and geopolitically areas of influence for it, and serves its political agenda in Africa, which is areas of influence for France, and France has begun over the past years-in light of the penetration of Wagner groups in the region - to lose its influence on the black continent, especially in the Central African countries, then Mali and Burkina Faso (countries that have recently witnessed coups) and now in Niger France announced a few days ago the evacuation of the last of its nationals from it; Niger will organize this –if the coup succeeds- To camp Wagner, whose eastern Libya is one of its most important strongholds and its waterfront on the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most important water bodies and geographical locations for Europe.
Last but not least of the possible effects of the coup in Niger on Libya is the fact that the Niger coup differs from other coups that Africa has witnessed and is witnessing from time to time, since-like its counterpart in Egypt- It is a coup against a legitimate authority elected in a constitutional democratic way, and its success will increase the state of doubt in the Libyan society in the ability of the Constitution to protect the country, especially with its inability and the ability of its institutions to protect themselves, and it will strengthen the ambitions of former putschists and Dreamers to embark on new adventures, one of which may lead to success, especially since the ruling institutions in Libya are fait accompli institutions and not constitutional institutions, and a coup against them is lighter on the international community than a coup against institutions that derive their legitimacy from the ballot boxes.
To overcome these potential political and security ramifications, Libya can proactively engage in diplomatic efforts to thwart the coup and the return of legitimate elected authority, and promote political dialogue to manage potential instability.
Libya must also play its role with caution, so as not to get involved in military adventures whose failure may lead to an increase in security and political instability in the southern regions. It is no secret that the economic community of West African States (ECOWAS) has waved the military intervention to end the coup and gave the coup plotters a week to give up power and return the kidnapped President Mohamed Bazoum, he stressed that its defense ministers have already drawn up the military plan for a possible attack, and it is also no secret that ECOWAS does not have the military strength nor the logistical capabilities Niger, including Libya, to support its possible military operation, and here it should It should be recalled that Libya is divided into two camps, one of which openly declared his stand with the legitimate authority represented by Mohamed Bazoum, and the other did not declare any position, but he is likely to support the coup plotters because of his previous coup attempts and because of the presence of Wagner's fingerprints in the coup team, which supports Wagner and supports him, for these and other reasons, any participation of Libya, even symbolic or logistical, in any military operation in Niger will not have good consequences.