When the winds collide, the mast bears the brunt of it
When sea currents struggle between north and south or between east and west, and begin to jostle, each one tries to be the dominant current, usually the greatest brunt falls not on any of them, but on the mast of the ship the bad luck of which led it to be in range of their currents, which the mast must stand and endure while each current tries to control the atmosphere and impose itself as master of the situation.
Today, Libya finds itself in the position of a mast that bears the brunt of conflict between currents that have nothing to do with the causes of its own conflict. Libya today bears the brunt of the conflict between Niger and the European Union countries, yes; Niger and the European Union countries, and mentioning Niger in the abstract may be a simplification of the facts, as the strong movement that is trying to repel the European Union movement coming from the West is in fact the Russian current coming from the east.
The story is summed up in the new regime in Niger abolishing a law criminalizing the smuggling of migrants in the country. This measure comes in response to the European Union which refused to recognize the new military regime in Niger which led an armed coup against President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26th, 2023. Among the most important reasons for the coup is the growing feeling in West African countries that they are still a hostage of French colonialism despite their apparent independence for decades, but the hidden reasons that are known and usually not mentioned are the growing Russian presence in the region, represented by the Wagner groups that supported similar coups during the recent period in Guinea, Central Africa, and Burkina Faso then Mali and finally in Niger, and the common denominator between all these coups is France's loss of influence and Russia's gain of increasing influence via the Wagner Group .
On November 27th, the ruling military junta in Niger abolished the law criminalizing migrant smuggling in the country, and the head of the military junta, General Abudorahman Tiani,, ratified the new law decree, which abolishes a law adopted by Niger during the era of its former president Mahamadou Issoufou in 2015, prohibiting the smuggling and bringing of migrants into Niger illegally in order to secure financial and other gains.
Before the law was passed, migrants, most of whom were from West African countries, used to enter Niger through the southern border without any problems through smuggling gangs that are not intercepted by the security and military services in the country, to cross and reach the city of Agadez in the center of the country, then moving from there to Algeria, Libya, and then Europe .
Agadez was an oasis in the middle of the desert for illegal immigrants, and represented a central station from which migrant convoys departed, in full view of the Nigerian army. Migrants arrived from far and wide to gather in convoys that crossed the desert in the direction of the northern countries - Libya and Algeria. Having lost this somewhat safe passage, many migrants were forced to take other, more secret and dangerous routes in order to cross.
As for Libya, it was and is still suffering from illegal migration flows even with the lack of a safe route for migrants. Now that the law criminalizing migrant smuggling has been abolished, the smuggling gangs will return to work with full force to compensate for what they lost during the past eight years, and the Niger army will protect migrant convoys bound for Libya to spite the European Union.
As if this is not enough in itself; in the summer of 2023, Algeria began expelling thousands of migrants to its borders with Niger, and the International Organization for Migration was forced to establish a camp to house these expelled migrants in an area called Assamka, located on the edge of Nigerien territory. Repealing the law will restore the hope of reaching the earthly paradise in Europe for these and others, and the Agadez caravans that see in the last action a chance to flourish again them will receive them, and will begin to direct them where they will not be expelled, to Libya.
The action taken by Niger will increase the pressure on Libya, which is not supposed to have anything to do with the disputes between the European Union on the one hand and Niger and its sponsor, Russia, through its agent, the Wagner Group, on the other hand. However “When the winds collide, the mast bears the brunt of it”. Moscow’s eastern winds fight with the winds of Western Europe to control the skies of Africa, so they begin to support the other’s opponents in order to weaken them, and so on. Recently, Moscow discovered a soft side of Europe, represented by southern Italy, by directing death convoys to it. Thousands of migrants on weak boats if they arrived, they would weaken the countries of Europe, and if they died on the way they would present Europe as a denier of human rights and a rejecter of helping vulnerable stranded people.
Last summer, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica published a report in which it talked about a possible role for Wagner groups in increasing the flows of migrants departing from Libya, especially from its eastern coast, where Russian Wagner mercenaries are deployed, which was not previously a starting point towards Italy due to the geographical distance.
The report adopted by an Italian parliamentary committee believed that the reason for the increase in migrants coming from the regions of eastern Libya towards the coasts of Italy is related to Russia’s efforts to influence the Italian elections.
We may not have - in Libya - a direct relationship to the causes of the conflict that led to the abolition of the Niger Law, or the reasons for its adoption in 2015 but why do we accept ourselves as extras in this play and play the role of the mast that is tossed left and right by the winds without having any role? Isn't our country already suffering enough to be a crossing point for thousands of people dreaming of reaching Europe to cross through it after spending years working there to pay the sailing costs for the merchants of death who are native to this country? Isn't the time yet ripe for the establishment of a strong state capable of protecting its borders on the one hand, and capable of controlling the unruliness of a small group of its people who are not deterred by values or morals, thus sending thousands of people to an unknown fate? and is it not time yet to implement the laws that successive governments claimed to have approved to employ immigrants so that the country benefits at least from the thousands of workers who cross the labor market in Libya benefiting from all the benefits of support that the Libyan citizen benefits from without paying any tax, and then ride the caravans of death after collecting what quiches the smugglers’ thirst?
There is no doubt that the action taken by Niger will have direct repercussions on Libya, and there is no doubt that Libya - which does not control its borders and does not control its people - will be a passage for the vast majority of convoys that Agadez will send. There is no doubt that Libya is not intended by Niger’s action, but rather it is one of the arenas of conflict between the powers of the East and the West. There is also no doubt that whoever continues to play the role of the object in the conflict equations, the actors will not stop utilizing it. The question is, how long will we continue to play the role of the object? And for how long will our country remain a back ground for settling scores in which we have neither part nor lot in?